ASL - real application of a wargame ?

I couldn't resist this one: ASL is my all time favourite board game/simulation, so I decided to use it to "calculate" some probabilities. What I have done is to use the various tables in the game, with some basic assumptions, to give likely (arguable, I am sure) kill rates for AFV vs AFV contests at Kursk.

And, of course my apologies to The Avalon Hill Game Company for borrowing from them - I promise it is meant as a great compliment ! Please follow the links at the bottom of the page to TAHGC - as well as the up-coming computer version of ASL from Big Time Software/TAHGC.

The assumptions are:

The firer is stationary and not buttoned-up
The target is moving across open ground, speed ~20KPH
The target comes into view at 1,500m range, heading straight at the firer
The 1,500m takes some 4-5 minutes to cover
The firer can get off some 4 rounds per minute - total maybe 20 rounds
Open, rolling Steppe terrain - no hindrances to LOS
To-hit probabilities worked out from the ASL tables
The hit is a kill if it is within the relevant Kill Ranges as per my own tables

OK, ok - so it is absolutely ideal conditions - but just remember these numbers when looking at some of the accounts of the battle - HOW MANY tanks did they say they killed ??

So, what do we get.... first table is Germans shooting Russians, the second the other way around. Cross-refer the firer against the target type - the number is the "likely" number of on-rushing enemy tanks disposed of before they roll over the top of the firer. For example, a Panzer IV D watching a Soviet Tank Brigade bearing down on it would have the chance to pick off 3 T-70s - and a T-34 as they close to point-blank range. Anyone crewing a Panzer Jäger I should leave immediately....

	T-60	T-70	T-34	KV
	SU-76	SU-122
		SU-152
Tanks:
Pz II F	1	1
Pz III J	1	1	1	1
Pz III J/1, L, M	1+	1+	1+	1
Pz III N	4	4	1	1
Pz III Flamm
Pz IV D, E, F	4	4	1	1
Pz IV F2, G, H	8	8	8	8
Pz V D	9	9	9	9
Pz VI E	8	8	8	8
Assault Guns/TD:
Pz Jg I	1+	1+	1+	1
StuG III B, E	4	4	1	1
StuG III F, F/8, G	8	8	8	8
StuH 42	5+	5+	2	1
Marder II	8	8	8	8
Marder III (t) H, M	8	8	8	8
SturmPz IV	1	1	1	1
Pz Jg III/IV, VI	9	9	9	9

And the equivalent table for the Soviets, with Tigers and Elefants heading down their gun barrels:

	Pz II	Pz III	Pz IV H	Panther	Elefant
	Marder	Pz IV		Tiger
		StuG
Tanks:
T-60 M40, M42	1+	1
T-70	2+	2+	1+	1	1
T-34 M41-43, KV-1 M41-42, 1S	4	4	2	2	1
KV3	4	4	4	4	2
Churchill III/IV
M3 Grant
TDs:
SU76-M	3	3	1	1	1
SU-122	3	3	3	3	3
SU-152	3	3	3	3	1

And do you wonder why the Soviets "charged" down the barrels of the Tigers they found ? Look at the comparison - the Tigers start killing at 1,500m (possibly even further). At that range, a T-34 cannot hope to reply... if they don't close the gap, they die. But they die in droves as they close the gap - 8 of them for every Tiger waiting for them. A whole battalion of T-34s could (in theory) be destroyed by 4 Tigers, just trying to close with them..... which would YOU rather be ??

For

For the computer version